Election 2017: Is Ben Gummer in trouble? Pollsters put Labour ahead in Ipswich
PUBLISHED: 18:05 31 May 2017
A new national poll has estimated that Ben Gummer is in a fight for his political life by putting Labour ahead in Ipswich.
YouGov shook up the election campaign on Tuesday night with the publication of a new polling model that suggested that nationally the Conservatives were set to lose their overall majority in the House of Commons.
Now they have published individual constituency polls that led them to make that estimation.
That shows Ipswich as a likely gain for Labour in the General Election on June 8.
It does have a wide margin of error – it estimates the Tory vote in the seat at between 34% and 46% with an average of 39% and Labour with a share of between 40% and 55% and an average of 47%.
However other political analysts see it somewhat differently. The Election Forecast website run by specialists from Durham University and the University of East Anglia believes there is a 97% chance of a Conservative victory in the town and a 3% chance of a Labour win.
And William Hills make Mr Martin 9/1 to win the seat with Mr Gummer red-hot favourite at 1/20.
Mr Gummer said: “I think we have all had enough of opinion polls over the last two years! I just do not pay any attention to them and I do not think they are adding anything to this campaign.”
He did not think the news would have any bearing on his volunteers – although some people have suggested that the YouGov poll could inspire more voters to go to the polls if they do not believe the election is a foregone conclusion.
Mr Martin also said he did not pay any attention to opinion polls – but said he had been buoyed by the reception he found on the doorsteps.
He said: “We have found a lot of people who say they did not vote two years ago but will be voting Labour this time. If they are true to what they are telling us then I have no doubt that we can win this election.”
Nationally the YouGov poll put the Conservatives on 41% and Labour on 38%. The company said that would leave the Tories with 311 seats and Labour with 255. Other parties would hold 82 seats in the new House of Commons.
However other polling organisations had very different results – on the same night a new ICM poll put the Conservatives 12% ahead, and on course for a 100-seat majority.
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